A federal court is allowing PredictIt to keep its political futures markets online while it pursues litigation against a federal agency trying to shut the site down. Below is a list of prediction market platforms and implementations that may be useful for futures studies. A screen capture of PredictIt. It had Haley Steven’s at well over 90 when the media was oddly shy about prognosticating who was favored. Trade on the world's most highly-debated topics like crypto, politics, sports, current events,. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitorsNot only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. Gov. org after the election, but I was unable to join since I don't live in. Consequential issues,. 202-543-8345According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Likewise, if other prediction markets like Augur or Predictious take off, I will include those. Register Now. trustworthiness, child safety measures, traffic rank, similar websites, server location, WHOIS data, and more. Scoring Midterm Election Forecasts Performance metrics for PredictIt, FiveThirtyEight, and Manifold MarketsPredictItNo. It’s not like PredictIt is happy about this. Copy Markdown Copy reStructuredText. This article is for subscribers only. The other is a similar exchange from the University of Iowa, which has been active since the mid-1990s. Political bettors on the PredictIt exchange were enraged when they went to buy or sell shares of the 2020 outcome and found the site inaccessible. 65 at PredictIt. Anything I write here is my opinion and not that of my employer. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. PredictIt is operating under an academic exemption, too, but it has had to fight to retain it. The PredictIt plaintiff lawyers argued that fairness and the Administrative Procedure Act require reasoned decision-making and a detailed explanation before ordering the market to close. That leaves the markets vulnerable to small shocks that can result in small profits. I artificially draw the line between early web and cloud simply because the cloud enabled so many other web apps to become more. S. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic keywords, search rankings, authority, and much more. What Was PredictIt?The CFTC is expected to render a decision Friday on whether or not Kalshi can offer election-based prediction contracts. I saw the post calling for us to fix the market inefficiency on predictit. org. org - Top 45 predictit. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games. Loss. com. users that “the security of trader funds will not be affected by this action,” and that it’ll keep going until. Today’s top 5 Predictit jobs in United States. And just like in Las Vegas for the NFL Championship, there will be plenty of proposition wagering available. Less than one year after committing to PredictIt full time, Rainbow Jeremy is on the top of the heap, making between $15,000 and $25,000 a month betting on congressional elections and Trump’s. elections, Congress, or Supreme Court, you can find the hottest markets and see how the odds change in real time. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. The. Need help with PredictIt? We are happy to assist! Check out our. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It's like a candy store for political and pop culture enthusiasts. PredictIt, a market that built its name by letting Americans bet on who will be elected to Congress or the next president, has lost its legal authority to. This is a list of sites where you can bet on politics. PredictIt is a betting exchange, like a stock market. Spend 25% of revenues on advertising to make consumers more aware of our service. org in terms of keyword traffic, audience targeting, and. On Jan 18, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans laid out a timeline for the case. It has been described as one of two legal ways to bet on elections in the United States. S. There are tens of thousands of PredictIt traders with modest investments and quality research done by more than 200 academic research partners that rely on the use of the site's anonymized data. it looks like we could be in for an election week, or perhaps even longer,” he added. You can buy and sell shares of real-world events and earn money if your predictions are correct. Menu. PredictIt: . I'm thinking of making a bet on PredictIt. You might not like that outcome, but you believe it will happen. 99 per share. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has revoked a letter it sent last year to PredictIt organizers that vacated its. predict(data=np. PredictItCloud Era Prediction Markets: policy and public interest prediction markets like PredictIt gained traction in the early 2010’s, presumably in the advent of the cloud, along with sci-fi markets like SciCast. TradeFair is an online trading platform that provides a secure, fast, and easy way to trade stocks, ETFs,. The PredictIt website offers armchair political pundits a way to make some pocket change by placing small wagers on election outcomes and the actions of politicians. Political betting site fights regulators. Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans. Predictit, the most often referenced one, has a fee structure that makes it horribly inefficient: they take 10% of all winnings on a given bet and 5% of all withdrawals from the site. PredictIt is somewhat larger and more active, with something like $1 million in its individual market, but that is still not much money in the grand scheme of things. com election betting odds by maxim lott and john stossel live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! who will win? biden, trump, harris, desantis?. We use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. The presidential election will not happen until November. In 2017, more than 300 million shares were traded on PredictIt. They’re called betting exchanges. I am using turbotax to prepare my taxes, and after entering it into the proper section, it wants to list it as business income (schedule c). Bitcoin. Menu Discover the full list of predictit. In addition to the claims about the university’s and Aristotle’s relationship, the CFTC also claims that 17 markets offered on PredictIt violated the no-action letter’s terms. , a U. One such website was PredictIt, which offered punters the opportunity to place bets on the outcomes of political events. Last updated on 2023/04/11PredictIt is a platform where you can bet on political outcomes, such as which party will win the U. godaddy. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minuteIn bet-capped places like predictit, this can make equilibrium that are different from optimal, because there are non-monetary incentives at work. Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. C. USBets: “PredictIt users are not taking the forced cessation of their political prediction market lying down, as some of the site’s traders and academic users and its market technology provider Aristotle International filed a federal lawsuit Friday against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election? Find out the latest odds and trends on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. Ways to buyJOHN ARISTOTLE PHILLIPS: It's like a stock market, but for politics. In order to enable researchers to take advantage of the opportunities presented by prediction markets, we make our data available to the academic community at no cost. “The CFTC action taken on Aug. With PredictIt. Profit. 2022 Election Predictors Show Political Gambling Market’s ‘Real Limitations’. S. PredictIt had Biden leading overall at 68 cents to Trump. Market the benefits of 'PredictIt' and why it is better than our competitors. Of course, spoofing requires spending money to buy shares, with no guarantee of profit, but this can be a small price to pay for this supposed. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. ’. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. UPDATED Nov. It’s a way to monetize things like 2022 midterm predictions. Mehmet Oz This is a highly. There are a few places where you can "place bets" or "buy shares" in current events such as electoral results, polling, Supreme Court decisions, etc…Other prediction markets have faced similar regulatory scrutiny. Find Predictit's competitors, compare Predictit's features and pricing vs. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. There are two problems here. Login. 31. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. Some platforms like Metaculus and Hypermind use volunteers with prizes, others, like PredictIt and Smarkets are formal betting markets. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any one contract a person can hold. The site has become a mainstay in virtually all. 9% higher probability on PredictIt than FiveThirtyEight. PredictIt was told to shutter in the U. PredictIt has made the following announcement in response to the withdrawal: The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action. marginalrevolution. ”’ 1 million. Predictit takes 10% of all your winnings plus 5% of all your withdrawals. 01:26 John Aristotle Phillips: It sounds like a lot. Follow the latest trends, insights and analysis from PredictIt's community of traders and experts. Political betting site fights regulators. Free Tools. The PredictIt exchange is similar to a stock exchange, where traders can buy or sell up until the event in question – such as the 2024 presidential election – concludes. High fees along with restrictions blocking automatic. Prices on Smarkets rate the Republicans as 65%. Discover the full list of predictit. Since anyone can use PredictIt, there’s no reason to think one user is better than another. org top alternatives and find potential or emerging competitors. Looking for brands like Predictit? We've researched the 8 top alternatives to Predictit and summarized the best options here in this Predictit competitors grid. A federal court is allowing PredictIt to keep its political futures markets online while it pursues litigation against a federal agency trying to shut the site down. 4, 2022, threatens to harm not only the value of modest investments of more than 80,000 PredictIt traders, but the quality of the anonymized data used by more than. [1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of. PredictIt Insight is a platform that offers data-driven insights on politics and prediction markets. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more. What I don't like about PredictIt is that they charge 5% on withdrawals plus other. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. PredictIt is a research. TOP LINE Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions. org in July 2023 are ranked by their affinity to predictit. Looks like predictit is missing a Code of Conduct. In other words, wisdom of the forecasting elite. "The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probabilities. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic. 5 mBTC withdrawal fee) API: A project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt has been established to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events. Ron DeSantis 41¢. Sites similar to predictit. 64% Ethereum. By 2016, popular markets such as the Michigan primaries alone generated more than 2 million trades, in part because prominent pundits like James Carville announced on TV that they were betting on PredictIt. Users can purchase shares of an outcome, like buying "Yes" or "No" shares of whether or not the Farm Bill will pass by June 30. PredictIt is currently offering shares in Biden being the nominee for 68 cents, meaning a trader who bought a share would earn 32 cents if he is the Democratic candidate in 2024, which is likely. It reads:PredictIt, a nonprofit exchange that limits speculation to $850 per event, is the most accessible site for Americans. BetMoose is a peer-to-peer betting website that allows users to bet on anything and accept or create bets with. These are just two examples of the larger narrative, which is that betting markets have continued to. They will give you a match of 100% of your initial deposit up to 80 when you use BESTODDS coupon code. PredictIt is hoping its 2024 election night goes much smoother than it did on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Prices for each possible result (usually two possibilities) fluctuate based on market trends. Election odds currently have Joe Biden at +138. Yeah, you guys are definitely on PredictIt. PredictIt, which has been provided by Victoria University of Wellington since. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. “This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in the insights they provide. Introduction. [laughter] Alright, so PredictIt is what’s called a prediction market. If the predicted outcome does not take place, the no shares are. Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. election is the main attraction for political futures traders today. Fully descriptive writeups. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through. Join the community of more than 100,000 traders and analysts and get insights from PredictIt's. Instead, they had just revoked a no-action letter, even though that no-action letter was effectively ensuring that the CFTC would not go after the site, and its removal seemed like a foregone conclusion that the site would run afoul of the regulator at some point down the road. Check your requirements. PredictIt, one of the most popular American prediction markets, operates as a non-profit research project limited to 5,000 betters for each event. No Bitcoin support. When/if PredictIt's odds become more efficient and get close to 100%, this site's main page will include the odds. The CFTC feels that the ruling in United States v. 12 for Democrats to win, . A decision on the future of Victoria University’s political betting site PredictIt remains in the balance as the Fifth Circuit court agrees to allow it to keep trading for a bit longer. You're one click away from the most comprehensive, unmatched analyst expertise in tech, in-depth private company data and a platform that brings it all together. 2023 of the popular event prediction market, PredictIt. But, nested under their “Sports” categories is an obscure sport called “Politics”! One of the markets here is in fact the same one on PredictIt: “Trump Exit Date”. PredictIt and Victoria University use the results from the market for statistical analysis, market theory, and trader psychology, and as supporting data for research papers and analyses. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Analyze websites like predictit. Touch upon this story Remark In 2016, Jason Pipkin was working in a biology lab at Brandeis College, authoring papers with titles akin to “Mapping the thoughts of a fly,” when he first heard of PredictIt. BetMoose. Predictit 's alternatives and competitors. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" 4: Investment Interest Rate/Time Value of Money. Mehmet Oz This is a highly contentious race for a seat being vacated by Republican Pat Toomey that, like in Georgia, sees a Donald Trump-endorsed celebrity candidate. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Predictit's top competitors include Kalshi, Consensus Point, and Augur. Before Iowa, Betfair, and competitor PredictIt gave Pete Buttigieg only an 8 percent chance of winning the most state delegate equivalents (which he did, pending a recanvass). Our Data. The firm has operated in the U. According to Nate Silver’s site, this election is still close to a tossup, whereas the wagering on PredictIt suggests it’s all but decided. Kalsi asked the CFTC for permission. Submit. 2,678Posts. PredictItsites for prediction,By 2022, it had 80,000 active s, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very seriously. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022. Everything has been going well since. A twitter rando with little identifying information is taking credit (edit: account just went private after complaining of harassment from Predictit users so tweet is unlinkable now, was@tnim__), claiming he lobbied for it as an act of revenge for Predictit banning him years ago. Other Things. Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt’s market analysts. Like stocks, investors want to buy low and then unload when the value is much higher. PredictIt’s operating expenses are covered by charging a fee of 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment and by charging an additional 5% withdrawal fee. YOU are responsible for determining if it is legal for YOU to play any particular game or. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. org. The other is a similar exchange from the University of Iowa, which has been active since the mid-1990s. PredictIt remains highly regulated and constrained by the terms of its agreement with the CFTC: Users can’t trade more than $850 on an individual bet, and there can be no more than 5,000 traders. Saved Stories. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. The political betting site PredictIt places his odds of being elected president in 2024, expressed as a share price, at 23 cents, slightly below Trump’s and well below Biden’s, but far above. Pricing. 3%: $882,928. ) from libraries like Scikit, Statsmodels or Tensorflow. com Analytics and market share drilldown here. Trump is back on top in PredictIt's Republican nomination. There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. We examine individual-level trading data from several markets in the PredictIt exchange to determine what strategies correlate with financial success. No Bitcoin support. "Overall, I put about $60,000 into PredictIt," said Trevor Boeckmann. Two of the sites that Election Betting Odds pulls from — Betfair and Smarkets — showed DeSantis holding a substantial lead over Trump, with the Florida governor coming in at 27 percent to 27. The first problem: prediction market mechanics are. Oral arguments in the case have been scheduled for Wednesday, but the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. Explore the markets for the 2020 US presidential election, the impeachment of Donald Trump, the 2022 Brazil presidential election and more. This does not increase if you do arbitrage. . 07% take fee) FAIRLAY (betting exchange, variable complex commission structure, 0. Similar overlays (for a better user experience) can be built on Augur as well, like eg guesser or STLD. 85. Washington, DC, 20003, United States. ” PredictIt, the political. Suggest an edit. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar manner to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), offering investors the opportunity to trade predictions on the outcomes of a wide variety of political events. S. Currently, PredictIt is fighting in court after the CFTC rescinded permission to operate several of its betting lines. By order of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, PredictIt and its co-plaintiffs will have their case heard in District Court, and the political futures market may continue to operate until it concludes. 00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. Well, because of the Sandwich bot issue, I couldn't be bothered to figure out how to bridge funds & LP via a relayer as some roundabout way to actually place bets (which was an intermediate way the team found to avoid the bots, but wasn't exactly the best UI) while my crypto experience extended to having some play-funds on Aave & more reading than. Global Traffic Rank. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any. Is there a good alternative in the US for PredictIt? Has anyone on here used it before? Since they only offer pay by credit card, does the credit card treat the payment. 4% Traffic Share. Many of PredictIt’s markets focus on political outcomes, like midterm results or the presidential race. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. S. I am literally at risk for $44 in the general election market, but that does not allow me to continue to trade. PredictIt has an $850 limit on any one market, for any one candidate or other potential outcome. Resources. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. PredictIt Alternatives TradeFair. Today's most actual and recent Forex Forecasts. Project 2. Learn how PredictIt works, how to join the community, and how to access the latest news, analysis, and insights from PredictIt's experts and partners. 5M shares traded. As far as reliability goes, consider that PM are a very new thing, so I recommend you use precaution with all of them for the time being. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. PredictIt and Windy are two websites that allow users to predict the outcome of various events. 15, 2023 due to the government rescinding a No-Action Letter, which formed the basis for it to operate legally. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitors Not only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. Wide menu of political events covered. AD Users are able to bet on events, such as 2024 nominations for president and whether marijuana becomes federally rescheduled this year, using bank deposits or a credit card, but PredictIt also accepts cryptocurrency. 3-66. Products. PredictIt is structurally inefficient. Your global no limit betting exchange. . Simple example of using predictit as a python library and function arguments. electoral-vote. 3 million shares traded on Wednesday morning, according to PredictIt. org Competitors. My position is: I've been meaning to. However, it was the only serious site that received a regulatory waiver. Current as of Map Timestamp. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). BetOnline also has Trump at +160 but Biden at a shorter -180, with money coming in on. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. S. Free Bet Offers : Predictions for 100+ Leagues : Latest Results by League and Team : Up to Date League Tables : Statistics for 3000+ teams. What that meant, essentially, is the CFTC allowed. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. The goal of this project is to develop a tool that can be used to. Few events listed other than politics. Expertise: Legislation, Sports Betting, Horse Racing. Data. S. Consequential issues, […](Disclaimers: I work in the financial industry, though not in a way related to prediction markets. More than 19 million shares were traded on the House speaker question leading up to McCarthy’s ultimate ascension this. It began operating back in 2014 and, despite its somewhat niche subject matter, soon became quite popular. since 2014. Which seems harsh, considering they let other scams like crypto, National Collector's Mint coins, and Tesla keep operatingPrediction markets have gained currency over the last 15 years as a tool to enable crowdsourced insights into the future. PredictItPredictIt tax treatment. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Judge Stuart Duncan penned the majority opinion, with Judge James Ho. Produced by ElevenLabs and NOA, News Over Audio, using AI narration. View election betting odds for those. PredictItPredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research. Site has approval of government officials. report. Jennings revealed that the election event has. org - Top 45 predictit. Sites similar to predictit. Interactive periodic table showing names, electrons, and oxidation states. Whether they are more accurate than polls doesn't change thatLike PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). By 2022, it had 80,000 active users, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very. 1. While the case is still ongoing, the latest action still represents a major milestone in the legal battle between the CFTC and PredictIt. However, PredictIt is expected to liquidate its event contracts by February 15, 2023. Preprocess data and chose optimal parameters of prediction. One of the highest courts in the country agrees that in 2014 PredictIt was issued a. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it,. S. 3%: $1,329,129. A judge ruled that PredictIt can continue operating until a final decision is made in that case, despite the CFTC’s efforts to shut it down. 5,646. Join PredictIt today. Deposit $80 when you open your account and PredictIt will deposit an additional $80. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. 1. Predictit. Wide menu of political events covered. Pennsylvania: John Fetterman vs. track the election with a red/blue map of the us updated daily using the latest state polls. Yale astrophysicist Greg Laughlin launched the site a year ago with physicist Anthony Aguirre of the University of California-Santa Cruz and their former postdoc Max Wainwright. Additionally, the site charges a 5% fee to withdraw money. Many of PredictIt’s markets focus on political outcomes, like midterm results or the presidential race. PredictIt 65. 24 Tuesday, with over half of that drop coming in the past week, amid a bizarre and. # 108,710 6,054. electoral-vote. 2024 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker. org alternatives Like 0 electionbettingodds. 35 shortly after his launch to $0. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. CryptoFind out everything you need to know about PredictIt before you play. S. ”. These assets trade between 0% and 100%, represented by $0 to $1. Posted on: August 4, 2022, 08:27h. org in July 2023 are ranked by their affinity to predictit. com. letter. Election odds currently have Joe Biden at +138. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. C. Capping. To engage with some new technologies, you should try a project like sspaeti's 20 minute data engineering project. electoral-vote. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. Donald Trump is +150, and Michelle Obama is +1600. PredictIt, a leading political prediction market, is closing its doors on Feb. Most of these don’t actually process real-money trades from their members, and those that do – namely PredictIt – have been excluded from the oversight of US gambling. . It’s a web site the place you could possibly place bets and win cash on political outcomes. He’d look for anything weird—usually something like suspiciously high odds that a Democrat would be indicted. PredictIt and Betfair as of Tuesday morning at 11 a. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. PredictIt told its U. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. What makes Lemmy one of the best alternatives is its versatility. Political betting site PredictIt to shut down after CFTC withdraws approval ( predictit.